Defense simulation tool helps analysts predict effectiveness of wartime technology

When developing new defense technology and strategies, a major challenge is predicting whether they improve the effectiveness of a mission. One approach is to conceptualize high-stakes military missions, where the technology being  utilized plays a crucial role. This kind of planning requires analyzing and testing the probability of many different mission outcomes, a goal best accomplished using wargame simulation tools.  

SIMCenter researchers David Hillstrom, Iric Bernal, and Shawn Midlam-Mohler are currently working to develop a tool of this kind that will help wargame analysts determine the best course of action in important military missions. The tool works using AFSIM software, a type of wargame scenario simulation software used to test new wartime technology or strategies by creating simulations that pit several sides against each other in mission-level engagements.    

The tool will be able to evaluate the probability of a specific outcome through hundreds of simulations of these engagements until outcome convergence has been achieved. “For example, if a mission requires survival for a high-value target, that target’s survivability could be presented as a probability,” Hillstrom said.  

The tool’s ability to monitor for outcome convergence is extremely important for wargame simulation, as it ensures that the results are accurate. “Individual simulations cannot tell the whole story for the mission,” Hillstrom said. “This tool that is being developed is a stepping stone to getting such result convergence into the core software and simplifying its presentation and use for all analysts.”  

According to Hillstrom, modeling and simulation made possible by tools such as the type being developed are extremely important for the future of defense technology development, as it can speed up the process of testing new military technology and getting better predictions of success. “The development time for defense technology is long enough that its associated mission is often irrelevant when it is complete,” Hillstrom said. “As a result, leveraging modeling and simulation has become paramount in defense technology at all possible steps.”